Diabetes Cases In Children to Double By 2020, Researchers Say
The number children under 15 with Type 1 diabetes will rise to about 160,000 across Europe in 2020 from 94,000 in 2005, according to a study in the U.K. journal The Lancet. Lead researcher Chris Patterson from the Queens University in Belfast expects the cases in children younger than 5 to double.
The gain is so rapid that it cant be explained by genetic links alone, the researchers said. Changes in lifestyle seen in nations with rising wealth, such as more births by caesarian section, greater height and weight, and fewer infections early in life, may be spurring the increase, they said. More cases will be diagnosed at younger ages than before and more children will have complications requiring hospital admission, they said.
“In the absence of any effective means to prevent Type 1 diabetes, European countries need to ensure appropriate planning of services and that resources are in place to provide high- quality care for the increased numbers of children who will be diagnosed with diabetes in future years,” Patterson wrote.
Type 1 diabetes is caused by insulin deficiency and must be treated with injections of the hormone, which regulates sugar levels in the blood. Type 2 diabetes, which often starts in adulthood, occurs as a result of reduced sensitivity to insulin as well as some insulin deficiency. Type 1 diabetes cases represent 10 percent of total diabetes cases. Children in Western countries are more often affected by Type 1 diabetes.
29,311 Cases
The study authors from the U.K., Hungary, Sweden and Denmark analyzed data from 20 centers in 17 European countries, which had registered a total of 29,311 cases of the illness between 1989 and 2003. They documented trends during that period to predict future trends in the disease in European children.
The researchers forecast about 24,400 new cases of Type 1 diabetes by 2020, with infants to 4-year-olds accounting for 29 percent, ages 5 to 9 for 37 percent, and 10- to 14-year-olds accounting for 41 percent. Countries in eastern and central Europe will have the most rapid increases.
A common complication of Type 1 diabetes is ketoacidosis, where the liver breaks down fats and proteins to provide energy in an unregulated fashion, leading to increased levels of acids in the blood, a condition which may be life-threatening. Ketoacidosis is one complication requiring hospitalization.
“It is imperative that efforts directed at surveillance of diabetes in young people continue and expand,” said Dana Dabelea from the University of Colorado in Denver in a comment accompanying the study.